EXMAR report 2025

2.1 Shipping 29 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026p 0 MMt 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: Poten, EIA US GAS PLANT LPG PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE EXPORTS Propane Production Butanes Production Seaborne LPG Exports 600 1050 750 800 850 950 900 1000 700 650 Source: Gibson, 2025 MGC Overview MGC 1 YR TC RATES IN 2025 1 Yr T/C 35,000 5 Year Average 1 Yr T/C 35,000 1 Yr T/C 38,000 1 Yr T/C 40,000 5 Year Average 1 Yr T/C 40,000 5 Year Average 1 Yr T/C 38,000 Jan 25 Feb 25 Mar 25 Apr 25 May 25 Jun 25 Jul 25 Aug 25 Sep 25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 US $/pcm 2022 2023 2024 2025e 2026p 0 MMt 50 25 30 35 40 45 20 15 10 5 Source: Poten, OPEC, Shiptracking data, Public available information MIDDLE EAST LPG EXPORTS UAE Qatar Iran Kuwait Other Middle East Saudi Arabia The threat of tariffs imposed by the US administration and the tit-for-tat from China that followed, caused for a lot of uncertainty in the trading environment and this has had its effect also on freight with high volatility throughout the year. Trade flows also shifted with China importing more from Arabian Gulf and Indian Oil Companies starting to import from the US. In the Arabian Gulf, the OPEC+ cartel agreed on increased oil production to cope with the increased demand from China looking for alternative supplies during the tariff war with the US. Warlike events in the Persian region reduced LPG export and pushed war risk premia up making shipping more expensive. Qatar’s seaborne export of LPG remained stable in 2025 and is expected to grow given their LNG expansion program in the years to come which will bring associated LPG exports to new levels. Most ship owners still refrain from transiting through the Suez Canal as tensions could mount quickly again. With possible US actions on Iran, increased security volatility in the Arabian Gulf remains in place. In the first half of 2025, daily average earnings for VLGC’s reached USD 39,370/day, whilst in the second half of 2025 activity picked up after the tariff threats between US and China and daily earnings quickly rose to levels above USD 60,000/day. The MGC’s had a similar earnings pattern, with more suppressed rates in the first half of 2025 and regaining strength in the latter part.